Octagon – How real is the threat of nuclear terrorism?

Photo by Dan Donovan

It’s not a spoiler to say that my new spy-action thriller Octagon contains a nuclear terror threat. The opening pages tell the story of how a disgruntled Chechen scientist, repeatedly passed over for promotion, steals small quantities of highly enriched uranium from the research facility where he works in Russia, storing it at home until he has enough to make an atomic bomb. Many years later, this material finds its way onto the international criminal market, where a new buyer expresses interest, and a deal is set up. The plot unfolds from there. But how realistic is the threat?

Thankfully there have been no recorded instances of nuclear terrorism. This is partly because such materials are very highly controlled, and usually in the possession of nation states who know how to guard them. If bad actors were to acquire nuclear materials – which Al-Qaeda, among others, long professed as an ambition – they would still need to know how to produce a nuclear bomb, which is no simple task. They would require at least 25kg of weapons-grade uranium to initiate a self-sustaining chain reaction – the kind of huge mushroom cloud explosions seen in old video clips. And unless they had a very reliable time delay for detonating it, they would need a remote delivery mechanism, which is typically a long-range ballistic missile. Again, not easy to come by, let alone launch.

Much easier, on the other hand, would be detonating an explosive device containing radiological materials. It would be very unlikely to produce a chain reaction, but the psychological impact would be huge. Public terror, blind panic, people fleeing the area where it was detonated. Massive cleanup costs, extensive economic damage, political turmoil. These kinds of devices are called ‘radiological dispersal devices’ and are sometimes referred to as ‘dirty bombs’. Fortunately, there haven’t been any of those either. But not for want of people trying.

The Chechen scientist in Octagon who manages to steal 100kg of communist-era surplus uranium from a poorly administered research facility is based on a real insider case, that of Leonid Smirnov, in post-Soviet Russia during the 1990s. Smirnov found himself in financial difficulties after the breakup of the USSR, and decided to monetise his access to the valuable asset he worked with every day: highly enriched uranium. Luckily, he only managed to steal 1.5kg and ended up being caught – but I wondered what would happen if someone did steal enough to build a bomb and got away with it.

Smirnov’s case is by no means isolated. There have been hundreds of instances of nuclear materials going missing and turning up on the black market over the past 35 years or so. Most involve tiny quantities, sometimes just a few grams. Others involve medical radiological material which is nowhere near as harmful. Most involve the former Soviet Union, which set vast production targets at the height of the Cold War, when they faced the possibility of all-out nuclear war with the US and its Western allies. And the legacy of that still haunts us today. 

Since 2019, the former Soviet republic of Georgia has thwarted three separate multi-million-dollar uranium smuggling plots – including two in 2025 alone. Real fissile material is out there (among the fake stuff no doubt being pedalled) and there are plenty of people who want to get hold of it. None has succeeded so far, that we know of. But Octagon asks the question: what if they did? Fortunately, for now, the answer is still within the realms of fiction.

Octagon by C.J.Merritt (Penguin Books) Out Now

A dying Russian scientist confesses to his children what he did as a young man. A murdered spy shares vital intelligence before he’s ruthlessly assassinated in the English countryside. A hidden ritual killing hidden in a forest clearing in Sweden hints at something much worse. Former MI6 Agent runner Stella McRae is the only person who can be trusted to investigate now her former employer has been compromised. Ex-SAS Operator Tommy Kane has always had Stella’s back, but as the threats against them escalate, will his formidable skills be enough this time? Octagon - A devastating plot against the West is already in train. Only Stella and Tommy stand in its way. And time is running out...

More information about CJ Merritt can be found on his website. He can also be found on Facebook. On X @drcjmerritt, Instagram @chrisjmerritt